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As global leaders convene in the Brazilian Amazon for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to review how we are faring together in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of 30 years of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted since 1990. Incidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which verified the danger of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists prepare the upcoming IPCC report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains overshadowed by political agendas. Regardless of well-intentioned efforts, the planet is still far from the path to prevent catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that CO₂ concentrations reached a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in the year 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, 90% of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 came from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% resulted from land-use changes such as deforestation and forest fires.

While the rise in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was driven by higher use of gas and oil—representing more than 50% of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also attained a historic peak, constituting forty-one percent. In spite of the previous climate summit's evaluation calling for nations to transition away from fossil fuels, global strategies still intend to produce more than double the amount of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than is consistent with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with continued extraction of natural gas justified as a less polluting transition fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Instead of focusing on economic incentives to accelerate the phase-out of carbon fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feel-good nature positive approaches that aim to cancel out CO2 output by planting trees instead of cutting industrial emissions. While protecting, expanding, and rehabilitating natural carbon sinks like forests and marshes is beneficial in itself, studies has demonstrated that there is not enough land to achieve the worldwide target of carbon neutrality using ecological methods by themselves.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—a territory larger than the United States of America—is needed to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. More than 40% of this land would need to be converted from current applications like food production to carbon sequestration projects by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Even if this ideal restoration could be achieved, forests take time to mature and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a quick or permanent CO2 retention method, especially in a rapidly shifting environment. While severe temperatures and dryness affect more of the planet, these well-intentioned efforts could literally go up in smoke.

The Weakening of Planetary Absorbers

Research data tells us that about 50% of the total CO₂ emitted each year remains in the atmosphere, while the rest is absorbed by oceans and terrestrial systems. With global heating, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at capturing CO₂, meaning that additional CO2 builds up in the atmosphere, intensifying climate change. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the land sector simply relieves the oil and gas sector from the pressure to reduce emissions in the near future.

The Climate Liability and Future Generations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to absorb excess carbon from the air. Polluters can easily buy carbon credits to compensate for their discharges and continue with business as usual. At the same time, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the burning of fossil fuels keeps on further disrupt the Earth’s climate. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, leaving our descendants with an insurmountable burden.

To limit the magnitude and length of exceeding the global warming targets, the world eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of net zero and begin to remove cumulative historical emissions to reach a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the Global Carbon Project, vegetation-based CDR is presently absorbing the equal of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while technology-based CDR represents only about a tiny fraction of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. More generous sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of worldwide CO2 output. Without meaning to be controversial, the policy twisting of carbon neutrality is a deceptive gap that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eliminate the primary cause of our warming world—fossil fuels.

The Urgent Need for Definite Steps

While this research-backed truth should lead talks at Cop30, history indicates that gradual, cautious steps and deference to politics will win out. Ambiguous promises of long-term goals will continue to postpone the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Until leaders are brave enough to implement carbon pricing to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding more and more carbon to the air, worsening the physical catastrophe currently happening across the globe.

The challenge we confront is simple: take real action to the scientific reality of our crisis or suffer the consequences of this deep ethical lapse for centuries to come.