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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.